Who would be better with the budget? If ad spending vs. votes Daggett is best by a mile.

Let’s trust the latest Rutgers-Eagleton Poll in the New Jersey Gubernatorial electiuon is correct. It shows incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine at 39%, Republican challenger Chris Christie at 36% and Independent Chris Daggett at 20%.

Let’s also trust a graphic in the Wall Street Journal sourced from TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG is correct on television ad spending. Governor Jon Corzine has spend $17.2 million, Chris Christie has spent $14.2 (Christie number includes $5.2 million from the Republican Governor’s Association), and Independent Chris Daggett has spent $300,000.

Let’s do a little division. What candidate is getting the best bang for the buck?
Corzine: $441,026 for every one percent of the vote.
Christie: $394.444 for every one percent of the vote.
Daggett: $15,000 for every one percent of the vote.

If Daggett can be the effective for getting votes for that little of amount of money, what could he do with the state budget?

SOURCE:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125617045643600361.html
http://www.nj.com/hudson/index.ssf/2009/10/latest_nj_governors_race_poll.html

A poll released today found Gov. Jon Corzine and Republican challenger Chris Christie running nearly even in the New Jersey governor’s race.

The Rutgers-Eagleton Poll showed 39 percent of likely voters supporting Corzine, 36 percent for Christie and 20 percent for independent Chris Daggett.

The Corzine-Christie difference falls within the poll’s sampling error margin of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

A Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll released Tuesday had Corzine and Christie tied at 39 percent each. The latest Quinnipiac University poll gave Christie 41 percent, Corzine 40 percent and Daggett 14 percent among likely voters.

Rutgers-Eagleton poll director David Redlawsk said the race remains so close that if the
election were held today, the candidate with the best get-out-the-vote effort would win.

The telephone poll of 583 likely voters was taken Oct. 15-20.

TEANECK, N.J. — The independent candidate for New Jersey governor is primed to play spoiler in the Nov. 3 election. The question is which candidate he will hurt most.

Recent polls show Chris Daggett, an environmental consultant, getting 14% support, while Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine and Republican challenger Chris Christie each are averaging less than 40% each, according to polling aggregator RealClearPolitics.com.

Voters’ mood this year is more anti-Corzine than it is pro-Christie, and most observers believe Mr. Daggett is siphoning anti-incumbent votes from the challenger. In a poll last week, Quinnipiac University asked Daggett supporters who their second choice would be. Forty percent said Mr. Christie and 33% said Mr. Corzine.

Turnout is typically low in New Jersey’s odd-year gubernatorial election, and with the better-organized Democrats behind the incumbent, a key will be those who say they are supporting Mr. Daggett.

Mr. Christie, a former U.S. attorney, had hoped to capitalize on dissatisfaction among unaffiliated voters and unhappy Democrats. Mr. Corzine, who was elected in 2005 after five years in the U.S. Senate, has suffered from the perception that he hasn’t addressed the state’s biggest problem — high property taxes — and festering resentment at his handling of high unemployment.

The White House is on the case: Wednesday, President Barack Obama appeared at a rally with Mr. Corzine for the second time this year. In recent days, Vice President Joe Biden and former President Bill Clinton also campaigned in the state.

Mr. Daggett has no such star power backing him. At a grassroots meeting in the suburban New York City town of Teaneck Tuesday evening, Mr. Daggett tried to tamp down fears that a vote for him would be wasted.

“I believe the indictment of the two-party system is strong across New Jersey,” Mr. Daggett told a group of about 30 people. “A vote for me is a vote for me. It’s time to take action on your beliefs.”

Mr. Christie led in the polls until September. That’s when Mr. Corzine’s personal wealth from his Wall Street career began fueling ads that questioned Mr. Christie’s ethics and decision-making. Another Corzine ad seemed to highlight Mr. Christie’s girth while a voiceover said Mr. Christie “threw his weight around as U.S. attorney.”

Mr. Christie has fought back by frequently reminding voters of Mr. Corzine’s wealth, which allows him to contribute to political and church groups.

All the mudslinging has opened the door for the long-shot candidate. At a televised debate Oct. 1, the major-party candidates sniped at each other while Mr. Daggett presented a detailed plan that would lower property taxes by 25%. He said he would do so namely by expanding the types of services that are subject to the state’s sales tax. He also called for cutting pension and health-care benefits for public employees, a risky move in a state that is heavily unionized.

Mr. Daggett’s message that voters aren’t getting what they want from either major-party candidate has played particularly well with some of the state’s 2.4 million unaffiliated voters, which make up about half of the total.

“What the Chris Daggett phenomenon is is a pox on both your houses,” says Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute in Long Branch. “We don’t like the job Jon Corzine has done, but we don’t think Chris Christie has leveled with us and told us what he will do, either.” Mr. Corzine says he has capped local property-tax increases and preserved rebates for middle-class taxpayers and favors property-tax credits or rebates in the future. Mr. Christie’s campaign says he has a plan to cut the state property tax by cutting items in the state budget.

As the regional administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under Ronald Reagan, Mr. Daggett played a role in killing a popular New York development project that he says would have harmed the Hudson River. He later served as the commissioner of the state Department of Environmental Protection and was recently picked by Mr. Corzine to help overhaul the state’s environmental-permit process.

Mr. Daggett has spent about $1 million on the election. Mr. Corzine, formerly chief executive of Goldman Sachs, has outspent him by at least 17 times, while Mr. Christie has outspent Mr. Daggett by nearly six times.

At the meeting in Teaneck, Mr. Daggett impressed on the group the need for them to elect someone willing to address the tax structure and an anticipated $8 billion state deficit.

One audience member, Richard Karp, a professional artist in Teaneck, said he planned to vote for Mr. Daggett, even though he doesn’t believe he has a chance. “Realistically, people are not inclined to vote for an independent,” he said.

Mr. Murray of the Monmouth polling institute agreed. “New Jerseyans are just so used to voting for a political party,” he said.

The recent Quinnipiac poll found that only 39% of those respondents have made up their minds.

Write to Suzanne Sataline at suzanne.sataline@wsj.com

First Read notes that “11 years ago, almost to the day, a new poll came out in the Minnesota governor’s race showing third party candidate, Jesse Ventura, sitting at 15%. At the time, just like here in New Jersey, all the buzz in Minnesota was about how Skip Humphrey and Norm Coleman were beating each other up, while the national climate, by the way, wasn’t good for either party as we were in the midst of the impeachment mess. Ventura, of course, in about three weeks time, went from polling in the low-to-mid teens to winning the race outright. All the ingredients are there for Daggett in New Jersey: both major party nominees have upside down negatives; 40% believe Christie is NOT honest/trustworthy while 48% believe the same about Corzine. The national climate has a ‘pox on both houses’ feel to it.”

“Now, New Jersey isn’t Minnesota and Daggett has NO money to penetrate the NYC media market (which the latest Quinnipiac poll shows is a key weakness; he’s stronger in the Philly market). But a break here (say a big endorsement from a well known/respected politician) or a break there (some sort of disastrous new scandal hitting either Corzine or Christie) and the floodgates could open. Daggett’s VERY close to being seen as a credible alternative in political terms. Bottom line: there’s too much volatility in the political landscape both in Jersey and nationally NOT to take Daggett VERY seriously as someone who could actually win this thing. Stranger things have happened, isn’t that right Governor Ventura? Governor Schwarzenegger?”

Interestingly, The Fix notes that the Republican Governor’s Association has launched radio ads attacking Daggett — a strong indication they believe he’s pulling more votes from Christie.

Independent gubernatorial candidate Chris Daggett at the Star-Ledger editorial board meeting on Friday. (Ed Murray/ The Star-Ledger)

The Star-Ledger today endorses independent candidate Chris Daggett and recommends his election as the next governor of New Jersey.

The newspaper’s decision is less a rejection of Gov. Jon Corzine and Republican Chris Christie than a repudiation of the parties they represent, both of which have forfeited any claim to the trust and confidence of the people of New Jersey. They share responsibility for the state’s current plight.

Only by breaking the hold of the Democratic and Republican mandarins on the governor’s office and putting a rein on their power will the state have any hope for the kind of change needed to halt its downward economic, political and ethical spiral.

New Jersey needs radical change in Trenton. Neither of the major parties is likely to provide it. Daggett’s election would send shock waves through New Jersey’s ossified political system and, we believe, provide a start in a new direction.

It would signal the entrenched leadership of both parties — and the interest groups they regularly represent — that an ill-served and angry electorate demands something better.

The lamentable fact is that the two parties are, themselves, little more than narrow special interests. Their competition for short-term political and/or monetary gain has jeopardized the state’s long-term economic health and left it with a tarnished national reputation.

Where the major parties have differed, their differences have been inconsequential. Where they’ve been the same, their similarities have been destructive.

They have contributed equally to gross overspending in Trenton by consistently pandering to the pay, pension and retirement policies demanded by powerful public employee unions. Democrats have financed the spree with tax hikes, Republicans with borrowed money, and both with pension-fund raids.

How do we now signal them that this has got to stop if not by rejecting their anointed candidates? How if not by electing Chris Daggett?

The most disappointing of the three candidates is Christie. Six months ago he seemed an almost certain winner, a highly successful federal prosecutor facing an embattled governor saddled with a collapsing economy and soaring budget deficits. He could run a rocking-chair campaign, it seemed, make only safe commitments, avoid controversy, and win.

Unfortunately, that’s mostly what Christie has done — a strategy that looks less promising now that his double-digit early lead has melted away.

Christie’s game plan for dealing with a looming, record budget deficit of $8 billion has been a work in progress. After pledging for months to cut taxes deeply despite the budget red ink, he disclosed Friday in an interview with The Star-Ledger’s Tom Moran that he has put most of the tax reduction on the shelf until the economy begins to recover.

But he’d still lower income taxes on the state’s wealthiest households by roughly $1 billion and restore a portion of the nearly $600 billion in property tax rebates rescinded last year — a neat trick while still balancing the budget.

Christie’s principal claim on voter support is based on his record as U.S. Attorney for New Jersey — and it’s not without merit. The Star-Ledger opposed his appointment to that post originally, only to be pleasantly surprised as Christie surrounded himself with capable, qualified people and performed well.

But his sketchy budget plans and his relative lack of familiarity with the details of state government, as evidenced in debates and before The Star-Ledger editorial board, give us pause.

Corzine is an eminently decent and likable man, and not without achievement. We especially salute his unflagging commitment to state education and his success in changing the Abbott school aid formula to ensure that money intended to help poor children follows them whether or not they live in specific districts.

But his shortcomings as a leader are serious. They’ve become all too apparent in his dealings with public employee unions, an often unruly Legislature and a Democratic Party that is, at best, an ethically compromised ship and, at worst, harbors a corrupt crew.

The governor may be the nominal leader of his party but there’s mounting evidence its commanding figure is George Norcross, an unelected South Jersey political deal-maker who’s currently rearranging the Democratic leadership in the Senate and Assembly.

Corzine is the chaplain on a pirate ship, not really its captain.

Like Christie, neither Corzine nor Daggett has adequately explained how he’d tackle the vast budget deficit. All three, to some degree, are like Dickens’ hapless Wilkins Micawber, hoping “something will turn up.” But only Daggett has produced anything close to a coherent plan to cut property taxes. He’d chop them by up to $2,500 per homeowner — but only if their municipalities kept spending increases in line with the Consumer Price Index. In effect, he’d require local officials to choose between their union supporters and taxpaying voters. It’s not a panacea, but at least a start.

As for government experience, Daggett, who has a doctorate in education, has at least as much as his rivals, having worked for both Democratic and Republican governors and served as regional administrator of the federal Environmental Protection Agency. His mastery of detail is impressive.

The reservation one hears about Daggett among the surprising number who say they’d like to vote for him is that he can’t win. And, indeed, the ballot position assigned Daggett and other independents makes his task daunting. You’ll have to hunt to find him.

But the value of a vote is not limited to picking a winner. The real value lies in the signal it sends about what the voter believes is best for the city, county or state — not merely at the moment, but long-term.

We believe Daggett is best.

For disappointed Democrats and Republicans, a decision to vote for Daggett will mean a break with party loyalty — no easy thing. What we’re suggesting is a temporary suspension of that loyalty as a way to begin changing the corrosive culture of Trenton. Daggett would owe nothing to either party establishment; he’d be free to recruit best talent wherever he found it. As he told The Star-Ledger editorial board, he’d feel no obligation to honor the traditional Democratic-Republican deal that requires bipartisan balance on the Supreme Court. He’d apparently take the best he could find regardless of party affiliation — or lack thereof.

For too long, the cliche about New Jersey’s two great parties has seemed all too true — that Democrats are corrupt, Republicans incompetent. Nothing will cause them to change their ways for the better except repudiation at the polls Nov. 3.

The election of Chris Daggett would deliver that repudiation and put a highly qualified occupant in the corner office at the Statehouse.

Independent gubernatorial candidate Christopher Daggett is back with another advertisement that ruthlessly mocks Governor Corzine and Republican gubernatorial nominee Chris Christie with impersonators.

The nine-minute internet spot features a mock debate. In it, Daggett – who is played by himself – comes off as the only candidate with specific government solutions, while an aloof Corzine looks at his hands and reads New York magazine, and an excitable Christie shifts between obsessing on jail, sleeping, bashing Corzine and even throwing his shoe.

Daggett, who laid out his tax plan at a press conference yesterday, tells viewers that “throughout this campaign, I’ve been the one candidate willing to tell you the truth and provide specifics as to what I would do as your Governor.”

Corzine’s impersonator sits back and lets his money do the talking.

“Sure I haven’t done most of the things I said I’d do four years ago, but Is pent a lo tof money wooing you then, and I’m showing you how much I care by spending a lot of money now,” he says. “And you’re always on my mind, except when I’m out of state or over the river in New York.”

Christie’s impersonator mentions that, although his wife and brother work in the finance industry, the similarity to Jon Corzine “ends there.”

“Many have criticized my campaign for lacking specifics, but I promise you I will get around to that sometime after the election,” he says.

Have you seen Chris Daggett’s new campaign advertisement?

Daggett, the independent candidate for governor, recently released a television commercial that shows actors portraying Democratic incumbent Jon S. Corzine and Republican challenger Chris Christie, standing on a stopped escalator.

‘Corzine’ is reading a newspaper, indifferent to the problem. “Someone will bail us out,” the character says. “They always do.” Fake Corzine shakes his balding head.

‘Christie’ starts sweating and yelling, his necktie coming undone.

“If someone doesn’t fix this now, people are going to jail,” the actor says. “Jail I say. Jail!” Fake Christie takes off his jacket and slams it down.

And then Daggett appears, hands on hips.

“This is broken,” Daggett says, indicating the escalator represents New Jersey. Daggett walks up the escalator steps, waving forward a group of women and children and saying, “Follow me.” Click here to see the video, close video window to return to story.

If you missed the commercial on TV, no problem – it’s splashed all over the internet, the perfect vehicle for a candidate such as Daggett who has limited financial resources.

“We haven’t raised as much money from special interest groups, and we don’t have the backing of governors associations, so we’ve relied more heavily on Internet and social media to get our message across,” Daggett said. “I think it’s working pretty well.”

The video has attracted about 4,000 YouTube views in the past few weeks, as well as spikes in visitors to Daggett’s Web site, which means, well … who knows? Could Web videos draw extra votes on Election Day? That’s the hope for Daggett, Corzine and Christie, each of whom is tacking November success to September – October mouse clicks.

And those mouse clicks are starting to mount up for the state’s gubernatorial candidates. Christie’s YouTube channel has been viewed 15,000 times since February, while 12,000 thousand folks have glanced at Corzine’s page since April. Both camps have released about 100 videos in the past half-year, as campaign staffs siphon energy and resources into emerging technologies with impacts that are not yet known.

Daggett? Well, he’s clocking in at only 600 views … but people are talking about that escalator ad.

All this online content has put New Jersey politics deep into the viral age, making this governor’s race different than any other in state history. The season’s Web video campaign contributions are witty, unapologetic, sneaky, funny, immediate, sleazy and thought-provoking – everything you could ever expect from a Garden State political race. What’s more, they are available at any moment, in any place with an internet connection.

* * *

When Corzine was elected governor, Facebook was some stupid time trap for college students, YouTube was your personal Web cam and Twitter was a word used in bird watching circles and dictionaries.

That was so 2005.

Four years later, Corzine and his challengers are relying on the social networking and file-sharing Web sites Facebook, YouTube and Twitter to reach voters.

Juan Melli is a big part of that technology push. Melli, who grew up in Gloucester County, founded the Democratic blog Bluejersey.com four years ago and later served as associate editor for Politicker.com, a political insider Web site.

Now Melli is Director of New Media for Corzine’s campaign. Melli said online initiatives make it easier for candidates to target their messages.

“With these emerging technologies, you can respond a lot more quickly than you could before, in ways you can’t do with print and television,” Melli said.

The candidates’ back-and-forth multimedia jabs about health care and cancer coverage highlight this fact. In the last week, Corzine’s campaign released three videos on those topics, including one showing a heated exchange between Christie and a cancer survivor during a speech at Rider University. Click here to see health care video, close video window to return to story.

Christie released a Web and TV response, discussing his mother’s bout with breast cancer and debunking Corzine’s claims. In the past, the turnaround might have taken weeks. Here, Christie and Corzine can sit in front of a camera … video download … upload complete … and the video is available for the world to see.

* * *

The black-and-white video shows stars in space. Music plays in the background, da-da-da-da. A floating door appears. It opens.

Da-da-da-da.

“You’re traveling through another dimension, a dimension not only of low property taxes and plentiful jobs, but of mind,” says an announcer’s voice. A window smashes. Eyeball and equation and wooden mannequin and clock float over the stars.

Da-da-da-da.

Welcome to “The Corzine Zone,” team Christie’s most creative campaign ad to date. Based on the 1960s sci-fi TV show the “Twilight Zone,” the Corzine Zone video features a cigarette-smoking host named Flash Sterling, a mock-up of series host Rod Serling. The idea came about during a staff brainstorming session. Click here to see the video, close video window to return to story.

The video attacks Corzine’s wealth, claims of his efforts to stop the foreclosure crisis, the state’s deficit, job growth and property tax relief.

For Christie campaign spokesperson Maria Comella, the Corzine zone video addresses the issues without being too serious.

“One of the key things we try to do with our video is try to make it interesting and engaging, and try to make it seem like it’s not a political video,” Comella said.

Another popular Christie video centers on a Corzine misspeak. At a press conference, the governor called it the “Garden State Expressway” instead of Parkway, so team Christie matched the sound byte with old-time 1950s traffic movies, and “Life is an Expressway” was born.

Beyond YouTube mudslinging, each major party candidate has one piece of technology that sets their campaign apart – technology that might determine our next governor. Take away party ideologies and issues and leadership credentials, and this whole race could be decided by a phone call or a new internet window.

* * *

Bzzz. Bzzz. Bzzz.

Phone vibrates in your pocket. Glance at the screen, and there’s a text message. Your friend? Your mother? Nope, it’s the Corzine campaign.

The group is sending texts to voters located near campaign stops. The texts are meant to rally interest and attract volunteers and helpers. People can sign up to receive text messages on Corzine’s Web site.

Juan Melli is encouraged by the success of the text messages.

“With e-mail, only a certain number of people will open it up, but with a text message, 100 percent of people will open it up,” Melli said.

While buzz surrounds Corzine’s phone efforts, Christie’s staff members are pinning election success on the Web site www.itsmynj.com, a sounding board for New Jersey voters. The Web site allows voters the chance to upload comments and videos about their hopes for the state.

“The Web site gives people the chance to speak directly to the campaign, and it allows a range of voices to be heard,” Comella said.

How about the other voice in this campaign, the quiet voice, the voice that just wants to talk about issues?

* * *

Chris Daggett wanted people to laugh.

He wanted people to know what he stands for, let people know who he is.

“I felt strongly that this campaign shouldn’t be about negative ads, and screaming at each other about driving records and private loans,” Daggett, the independent candidate for governor, said.

So he released his escalator ad, expressing his belief that Corzine and Christie have focused too heavily on each other’s faults – and not enough about fixing New Jersey.

“For a campaign with limited resources at the moment, the ad has had a pretty big impact,” Daggett said.

Daggett doesn’t have the staff or deep pockets of his challengers, so the internet is the perfect resource for him – a chance to reach a broad slice of people without breaking the bank.

Daggett thinks this multimedia-driven election cycle is a follow-up to Barack Obama’s online voting presence a year ago. And that Obama carried forward the initiatives of 2004 Democratic presidential candidate Howard Dean’s internet grassroots efforts.

And four years from now, someone may be talking about Facebook and YouTube and Twitter in a past tense – and how some not-yet-imagined Internet concept is changing New Jersey’s 2013 gubernatorial race.

Facebook? YouTube? Twitter? That is so 2009.

Independent candidates are poised to run serious campaigns for governor in at least a half-dozen states, a development that threatens Democratic fortunes in some of the bluest and most progressive-minded states in the nation.

In New Jersey, where Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine is seeking a second term in November, polls suggest an independent candidate is carving a sizable portion of voters out of his hide.

In two other reliably Democratic states, Massachusetts and Rhode Island, well-known politicians running as independents could significantly undermine Democratic chances in 2010, if not flat-out win. Credible third-party candidates are also mulling over bids in a handful of other states that have open seat governor’s races next year — including Minnesota and Maine, both of which have a recent history of electing third-party governors.

November will provide the first test of whether these candidates are getting traction. That’s when New Jersey voters will go to the polls to choose among Corzine, Republican Chris Christie and independent Chris Daggett, a moderate former Republican who once worked as deputy chief of staff to Gov. Tom Kean.

According to a Public Policy Polling survey released last week, Daggett is trailing in third place with 13 percent of the vote — well behind the two major party nominees but a significant portion for a non-major party candidate.

More important, the survey found that Daggett is capturing 15 percent of the Democratic vote, compared with just 7 percent of the GOP vote, in a race where the embattled Corzine can’t afford to lose much Democratic support.

“It’s Democrats who are disgusted with Corzine but who can’t quite bring themselves to vote for Christie,” noted Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling.

Daggett attributes his showing at least in part to frustration with both the Democratic and Republican parties.

“The level of distrust of both parties is very high,” Daggett told POLITICO. “You’ve got an opportunity for an independent candidate to run a different kind of campaign.”

The volatile political environment, some strategists say, is fertile ground for nontraditional candidacies.

“My guess is when there is a pox on all of your houses, people in some states are more willing to vote for an independent,” said one top Democratic strategist who is a veteran of governors’ races. “It’s a piss-poor environment, and a number of people are looking for someone new.”

The unique contour of the current election landscape is another reason for the spate of viable third-party candidacies. Vermont GOP Gov. Jim Douglas’s recent decision not to seek a fifth term in 2010 means that more than half of the 39 governorships up for election this year and next will be open-seat races with no incumbent running.

For Democrats, who must defend 21 of their 28 governorships, the problem is especially concentrated. They are defending more governorships than Republicans, against the backdrop of a midterm election — and midterms are historically more hostile to the party in power.

Tim Penny, a former Democratic congressman from Minnesota who failed in a 2002 Independence Party bid for governor, said that independent candidates have special appeal in left-leaning states that are unhappy with their Democratic choices but unwilling to vote for a Republican.

“It seems that there is some disaffection among people who would normally think of themselves as Democrats,” said Penny, who compared the situation this election cycle with 1992, when independent Ross Perot siphoned off Republican voters in the presidential race, enabling Democrat Bill Clinton to defeat incumbent George H.W. Bush. “I think you’re going to see independent candidates being a threat to Democratic incumbents.”

For Democrats in Rhode Island, where the party has been shut out of the governor’s office for 14 years, the independent candidacy of former Sen. Lincoln Chafee is viewed as a serious blow to their chances of winning the open governor’s seat.

Chafee, a former Republican senator running in a state Barack Obama won in a landslide, has been critical of both parties — even going so far as to take a shot at President Obama, whom he endorsed in the 2008 presidential race, for not reaching out to congressional Republicans.

Since entering the race earlier this year, Chafee, a persistent thorn in the side of the GOP since he bolted in 2007, has aggressively portrayed himself as a candidate who offers a fresh “third way” approach to politics.

“There’s real opportunity for a new way,” Chafee told POLITICO.

Emily DeRose, a spokeswoman for the Democratic Governors Association, dismissed Daggett and Chafee as little more than Republicans masquerading as something different and said they would have little ability to draw Democratic votes on Election Day.

“These GOP candidates are disguising themselves as independents because the Republican brand is still so toxic,” said DeRose. “They can’t hide their records, though.”

In strongly Democratic Massachusetts, Gov. Deval Patrick, a Democrat facing a tough reelection battle, the serious third-party challenge comes in the shape of a former party colleague — state Treasurer Tim Cahill.

Cahill, who switched to become an independent earlier this year, hasn’t been shy about singling out Patrick for blame over the state’s dire fiscal situation.

“I’ve been sounding the alarm for 18 months about revenues,” Cahill told a group of business leaders in Boston earlier this month. “Unfortunately, the message has not been heard on Beacon Hill or by the executive branch.”

While Cahill ran second to Patrick in a recent poll and could conceivably defeat him in a general election, it’s also possible that his centrist positioning could end up inadvertently assisting the governor by providing a way station for disaffected Democrats who might otherwise have voted Republican.

Cahill’s odds of winning are long — no independent candidate has ever been elected governor of Massachusetts. But the same cannot be said of three other states, where independent and third-party candidates have had a recent record of success.

In Maine, Minnesota and Vermont, all with wide-open governor’s races, insiders expect viable third-party candidates to make bids.

In Minnesota, where Dean Barkley served as the chairman of Jesse Ventura’s successful 1998 Reform Party campaign for governor, there is talk of a Barkley candidacy in 2010. In the 2008 Senate race, Barkley won 15 percent while running on the Independence Party line.

In Maine, where independent Angus King won two terms as governor in 1994 and 1998, Peter Vigue, a prominent construction company executive, is talking up a prospective independent bid. Nearby Vermont could see a repeat bid by Anthony Pollina, running on the Progressive ticket. Pollina won 22 percent in his 2008 run for governor — and captured more votes than the Democratic nominee.

The last time heavily Democratic Vermont had an open governor’s race in 2002, an independent candidate played a significant role in the outcome — a GOP victory — by winning 10 percent of the vote.

“I think all states are unique to a certain degree, but some states are more unique than others,” said Bill Hillsman, a strategist for Daggett who also worked on Ventura’s successful campaign in Minnesota.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0909/27634.html#ixzz0SPuOaRVG

We’ve all seen the polls from the upcoming New Jersey gubernatorial election. Democrat Jon Corzine and Republican Chris Christie are duking it out for the lead, but we have also started seeing the name “Chris Daggett” in third place – far behind but breaking into the double digits. So, naturally, we are starting to wonder who this guy is and what effects his renegade candidacy will have on the race.

On one hand, Daggett is a veteran of New Jersey politics and tied closely to former Gov. Tom Kean. He entered public service as Kean’s deputy chief of staff in 1982, then he became a Regional Administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in 1984. He returned to the Kean administration in 1988 as Commissioner of the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, then left public service in 1989. So, he should appeal primarily to moderate Republicans and drain votes from Christie, right? Well, yes, but it’s not that simple.

Daggett also has serious environmental creds, and has snatched the endorsement of the New Jersey Sierra Club away from Corzine. He’s also a big school-choice advocate. So – his campaign is centrist, but he’s running to Christie’s right on education and Corzine’s left on the environment.

In other words, he’s exactly the sort of oddball ideological crazy-quilt who can effectively campaign as a true independent – and he has the added benefit of being totally unconnected to the political scene for the the last twenty years. Not a bad start if you want to run a populist independent campaign. Personally, I think we need to stop treating this guy as a spoiler and start looking at him as a contender.

I wouldn’t have said that a month ago. Even though he polls in double digits despite having very low name recognition, I didn’t really see him gaining the recognition to compete. I mean, he has message that resonates and both of the major party candidates have issues – but let’s face it, Chris Daggett is a pretty boring, wonkish-type guy (not good if you want to play the renegade). So – why am I suddenly so bullish?

Three words: North Woods Adverstising.

North Woods is well known for irreverent political ad campaigns for unconventional candidates. Past clients include Jesse Ventura, Paul Wellstone, Ned Lamont, and the infamous (if unsuccessful) Kinky Friedman for Governor campaign. These people know a thing or two about taking candidates who have no business even competing and turning them into Senators and Governors. Now, they’ve taken on the task of turning milktoasty Chris Daggett and making him New Jersey’s newest superhero.

It’s a bit of a tall order – he doesn’t have Kinky’s panache and he can’t grind your bones to dust like Ventura – but it’s also not like he’s running against top-shelf opponents. Ventura had to beat Norm Coleman and Hubert Humphrey III. Daggett has to beat John Corzine, a governor who is hated by his constituents; and Chris Christie, who is losing ground to said hated governor.

Let’s not kid ourselves – Daggett is way back in the polls and he has bad name recognition. That said, he’s hitting the airwaves with a kick-butt TV ad, and it’s probably not his last. His numbers seem to be going up (one poll has him at 13%), and he already polls insanely high compared to his name recognition numbers. If he can get his name on TV enough to get more recognition, his poll numbers will go up – it’s that simple.

I wouldn’t vote for Chris Daggett, and I’m not saying that he will win. I am, however, saying that he can win if he does it right.

Independent candidate Chris Daggett, looking to boost his visibility in the New Jersey gubernatorial race, has launched a new must-watch TV ad using look-alikes to mock the two major party candidates.

The scene: an escalator breaks down, probably at one of the Garden State’s wonderful shopping malls. One passenger, Gov. Jon Corzine (D), is portrayed as an aloof, Wall Street Journal reading figure hoping someone will bail him out. Another, former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie (R), is shown as a rotund angry man shouting for help. “If someone doesn’t fix this right now, people going to jail. Jail I said, jail!” he bellows.

“When Democrats and Republican fail New Jersey, it’s up to us to take New Jersey back,” a narrator says. “Follow me,” Daggett himself says, leading people past the fake candidates, and directing fire men to help the other guys who “still need rescuing.”

The ad launched Sunday in the New York market, and will air on broadcast and cable during news programming and Yankees games, spokesperson Tom Johnson told RCP this morning. The ad is the brainchild of Bill Hillsman, who has a reputation for doing these type of “quirky” ads, for candidates like Jesse Ventura.

“We’re trying to raise our name recognition here, and we’ll be saying a lot more as the campaign goes on,” Johnson said.

Daggett is polling in the mid-single digits at this point, with many believing his role in the race will ultimately be that of spoiler. Unclear, though, is whether he draws more votes from Christie or Corzine.

“We don’t care who we hurt,” Johnson said. “People in New Jersey are understandably very upset with the state of affairs. … And neither party is willing or able to fix the fiscal situation.” Daggett is “in it to win it,” he adds.

The body doubles were cast by Hillsman through an open casting call. And they might appear again before the campaign ends.