Who would be better with the budget? If ad spending vs. votes Daggett is best by a mile.

Let’s trust the latest Rutgers-Eagleton Poll in the New Jersey Gubernatorial electiuon is correct. It shows incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine at 39%, Republican challenger Chris Christie at 36% and Independent Chris Daggett at 20%.

Let’s also trust a graphic in the Wall Street Journal sourced from TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG is correct on television ad spending. Governor Jon Corzine has spend $17.2 million, Chris Christie has spent $14.2 (Christie number includes $5.2 million from the Republican Governor’s Association), and Independent Chris Daggett has spent $300,000.

Let’s do a little division. What candidate is getting the best bang for the buck?
Corzine: $441,026 for every one percent of the vote.
Christie: $394.444 for every one percent of the vote.
Daggett: $15,000 for every one percent of the vote.

If Daggett can be the effective for getting votes for that little of amount of money, what could he do with the state budget?

SOURCE:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125617045643600361.html
http://www.nj.com/hudson/index.ssf/2009/10/latest_nj_governors_race_poll.html

A poll released today found Gov. Jon Corzine and Republican challenger Chris Christie running nearly even in the New Jersey governor’s race.

The Rutgers-Eagleton Poll showed 39 percent of likely voters supporting Corzine, 36 percent for Christie and 20 percent for independent Chris Daggett.

The Corzine-Christie difference falls within the poll’s sampling error margin of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

A Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll released Tuesday had Corzine and Christie tied at 39 percent each. The latest Quinnipiac University poll gave Christie 41 percent, Corzine 40 percent and Daggett 14 percent among likely voters.

Rutgers-Eagleton poll director David Redlawsk said the race remains so close that if the
election were held today, the candidate with the best get-out-the-vote effort would win.

The telephone poll of 583 likely voters was taken Oct. 15-20.

TEANECK, N.J. — The independent candidate for New Jersey governor is primed to play spoiler in the Nov. 3 election. The question is which candidate he will hurt most.

Recent polls show Chris Daggett, an environmental consultant, getting 14% support, while Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine and Republican challenger Chris Christie each are averaging less than 40% each, according to polling aggregator RealClearPolitics.com.

Voters’ mood this year is more anti-Corzine than it is pro-Christie, and most observers believe Mr. Daggett is siphoning anti-incumbent votes from the challenger. In a poll last week, Quinnipiac University asked Daggett supporters who their second choice would be. Forty percent said Mr. Christie and 33% said Mr. Corzine.

Turnout is typically low in New Jersey’s odd-year gubernatorial election, and with the better-organized Democrats behind the incumbent, a key will be those who say they are supporting Mr. Daggett.

Mr. Christie, a former U.S. attorney, had hoped to capitalize on dissatisfaction among unaffiliated voters and unhappy Democrats. Mr. Corzine, who was elected in 2005 after five years in the U.S. Senate, has suffered from the perception that he hasn’t addressed the state’s biggest problem — high property taxes — and festering resentment at his handling of high unemployment.

The White House is on the case: Wednesday, President Barack Obama appeared at a rally with Mr. Corzine for the second time this year. In recent days, Vice President Joe Biden and former President Bill Clinton also campaigned in the state.

Mr. Daggett has no such star power backing him. At a grassroots meeting in the suburban New York City town of Teaneck Tuesday evening, Mr. Daggett tried to tamp down fears that a vote for him would be wasted.

“I believe the indictment of the two-party system is strong across New Jersey,” Mr. Daggett told a group of about 30 people. “A vote for me is a vote for me. It’s time to take action on your beliefs.”

Mr. Christie led in the polls until September. That’s when Mr. Corzine’s personal wealth from his Wall Street career began fueling ads that questioned Mr. Christie’s ethics and decision-making. Another Corzine ad seemed to highlight Mr. Christie’s girth while a voiceover said Mr. Christie “threw his weight around as U.S. attorney.”

Mr. Christie has fought back by frequently reminding voters of Mr. Corzine’s wealth, which allows him to contribute to political and church groups.

All the mudslinging has opened the door for the long-shot candidate. At a televised debate Oct. 1, the major-party candidates sniped at each other while Mr. Daggett presented a detailed plan that would lower property taxes by 25%. He said he would do so namely by expanding the types of services that are subject to the state’s sales tax. He also called for cutting pension and health-care benefits for public employees, a risky move in a state that is heavily unionized.

Mr. Daggett’s message that voters aren’t getting what they want from either major-party candidate has played particularly well with some of the state’s 2.4 million unaffiliated voters, which make up about half of the total.

“What the Chris Daggett phenomenon is is a pox on both your houses,” says Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute in Long Branch. “We don’t like the job Jon Corzine has done, but we don’t think Chris Christie has leveled with us and told us what he will do, either.” Mr. Corzine says he has capped local property-tax increases and preserved rebates for middle-class taxpayers and favors property-tax credits or rebates in the future. Mr. Christie’s campaign says he has a plan to cut the state property tax by cutting items in the state budget.

As the regional administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under Ronald Reagan, Mr. Daggett played a role in killing a popular New York development project that he says would have harmed the Hudson River. He later served as the commissioner of the state Department of Environmental Protection and was recently picked by Mr. Corzine to help overhaul the state’s environmental-permit process.

Mr. Daggett has spent about $1 million on the election. Mr. Corzine, formerly chief executive of Goldman Sachs, has outspent him by at least 17 times, while Mr. Christie has outspent Mr. Daggett by nearly six times.

At the meeting in Teaneck, Mr. Daggett impressed on the group the need for them to elect someone willing to address the tax structure and an anticipated $8 billion state deficit.

One audience member, Richard Karp, a professional artist in Teaneck, said he planned to vote for Mr. Daggett, even though he doesn’t believe he has a chance. “Realistically, people are not inclined to vote for an independent,” he said.

Mr. Murray of the Monmouth polling institute agreed. “New Jerseyans are just so used to voting for a political party,” he said.

The recent Quinnipiac poll found that only 39% of those respondents have made up their minds.

Write to Suzanne Sataline at suzanne.sataline@wsj.com

First Read notes that “11 years ago, almost to the day, a new poll came out in the Minnesota governor’s race showing third party candidate, Jesse Ventura, sitting at 15%. At the time, just like here in New Jersey, all the buzz in Minnesota was about how Skip Humphrey and Norm Coleman were beating each other up, while the national climate, by the way, wasn’t good for either party as we were in the midst of the impeachment mess. Ventura, of course, in about three weeks time, went from polling in the low-to-mid teens to winning the race outright. All the ingredients are there for Daggett in New Jersey: both major party nominees have upside down negatives; 40% believe Christie is NOT honest/trustworthy while 48% believe the same about Corzine. The national climate has a ‘pox on both houses’ feel to it.”

“Now, New Jersey isn’t Minnesota and Daggett has NO money to penetrate the NYC media market (which the latest Quinnipiac poll shows is a key weakness; he’s stronger in the Philly market). But a break here (say a big endorsement from a well known/respected politician) or a break there (some sort of disastrous new scandal hitting either Corzine or Christie) and the floodgates could open. Daggett’s VERY close to being seen as a credible alternative in political terms. Bottom line: there’s too much volatility in the political landscape both in Jersey and nationally NOT to take Daggett VERY seriously as someone who could actually win this thing. Stranger things have happened, isn’t that right Governor Ventura? Governor Schwarzenegger?”

Interestingly, The Fix notes that the Republican Governor’s Association has launched radio ads attacking Daggett — a strong indication they believe he’s pulling more votes from Christie.

Have you seen Chris Daggett’s new campaign advertisement?

Daggett, the independent candidate for governor, recently released a television commercial that shows actors portraying Democratic incumbent Jon S. Corzine and Republican challenger Chris Christie, standing on a stopped escalator.

‘Corzine’ is reading a newspaper, indifferent to the problem. “Someone will bail us out,” the character says. “They always do.” Fake Corzine shakes his balding head.

‘Christie’ starts sweating and yelling, his necktie coming undone.

“If someone doesn’t fix this now, people are going to jail,” the actor says. “Jail I say. Jail!” Fake Christie takes off his jacket and slams it down.

And then Daggett appears, hands on hips.

“This is broken,” Daggett says, indicating the escalator represents New Jersey. Daggett walks up the escalator steps, waving forward a group of women and children and saying, “Follow me.” Click here to see the video, close video window to return to story.

If you missed the commercial on TV, no problem – it’s splashed all over the internet, the perfect vehicle for a candidate such as Daggett who has limited financial resources.

“We haven’t raised as much money from special interest groups, and we don’t have the backing of governors associations, so we’ve relied more heavily on Internet and social media to get our message across,” Daggett said. “I think it’s working pretty well.”

The video has attracted about 4,000 YouTube views in the past few weeks, as well as spikes in visitors to Daggett’s Web site, which means, well … who knows? Could Web videos draw extra votes on Election Day? That’s the hope for Daggett, Corzine and Christie, each of whom is tacking November success to September – October mouse clicks.

And those mouse clicks are starting to mount up for the state’s gubernatorial candidates. Christie’s YouTube channel has been viewed 15,000 times since February, while 12,000 thousand folks have glanced at Corzine’s page since April. Both camps have released about 100 videos in the past half-year, as campaign staffs siphon energy and resources into emerging technologies with impacts that are not yet known.

Daggett? Well, he’s clocking in at only 600 views … but people are talking about that escalator ad.

All this online content has put New Jersey politics deep into the viral age, making this governor’s race different than any other in state history. The season’s Web video campaign contributions are witty, unapologetic, sneaky, funny, immediate, sleazy and thought-provoking – everything you could ever expect from a Garden State political race. What’s more, they are available at any moment, in any place with an internet connection.

* * *

When Corzine was elected governor, Facebook was some stupid time trap for college students, YouTube was your personal Web cam and Twitter was a word used in bird watching circles and dictionaries.

That was so 2005.

Four years later, Corzine and his challengers are relying on the social networking and file-sharing Web sites Facebook, YouTube and Twitter to reach voters.

Juan Melli is a big part of that technology push. Melli, who grew up in Gloucester County, founded the Democratic blog Bluejersey.com four years ago and later served as associate editor for Politicker.com, a political insider Web site.

Now Melli is Director of New Media for Corzine’s campaign. Melli said online initiatives make it easier for candidates to target their messages.

“With these emerging technologies, you can respond a lot more quickly than you could before, in ways you can’t do with print and television,” Melli said.

The candidates’ back-and-forth multimedia jabs about health care and cancer coverage highlight this fact. In the last week, Corzine’s campaign released three videos on those topics, including one showing a heated exchange between Christie and a cancer survivor during a speech at Rider University. Click here to see health care video, close video window to return to story.

Christie released a Web and TV response, discussing his mother’s bout with breast cancer and debunking Corzine’s claims. In the past, the turnaround might have taken weeks. Here, Christie and Corzine can sit in front of a camera … video download … upload complete … and the video is available for the world to see.

* * *

The black-and-white video shows stars in space. Music plays in the background, da-da-da-da. A floating door appears. It opens.

Da-da-da-da.

“You’re traveling through another dimension, a dimension not only of low property taxes and plentiful jobs, but of mind,” says an announcer’s voice. A window smashes. Eyeball and equation and wooden mannequin and clock float over the stars.

Da-da-da-da.

Welcome to “The Corzine Zone,” team Christie’s most creative campaign ad to date. Based on the 1960s sci-fi TV show the “Twilight Zone,” the Corzine Zone video features a cigarette-smoking host named Flash Sterling, a mock-up of series host Rod Serling. The idea came about during a staff brainstorming session. Click here to see the video, close video window to return to story.

The video attacks Corzine’s wealth, claims of his efforts to stop the foreclosure crisis, the state’s deficit, job growth and property tax relief.

For Christie campaign spokesperson Maria Comella, the Corzine zone video addresses the issues without being too serious.

“One of the key things we try to do with our video is try to make it interesting and engaging, and try to make it seem like it’s not a political video,” Comella said.

Another popular Christie video centers on a Corzine misspeak. At a press conference, the governor called it the “Garden State Expressway” instead of Parkway, so team Christie matched the sound byte with old-time 1950s traffic movies, and “Life is an Expressway” was born.

Beyond YouTube mudslinging, each major party candidate has one piece of technology that sets their campaign apart – technology that might determine our next governor. Take away party ideologies and issues and leadership credentials, and this whole race could be decided by a phone call or a new internet window.

* * *

Bzzz. Bzzz. Bzzz.

Phone vibrates in your pocket. Glance at the screen, and there’s a text message. Your friend? Your mother? Nope, it’s the Corzine campaign.

The group is sending texts to voters located near campaign stops. The texts are meant to rally interest and attract volunteers and helpers. People can sign up to receive text messages on Corzine’s Web site.

Juan Melli is encouraged by the success of the text messages.

“With e-mail, only a certain number of people will open it up, but with a text message, 100 percent of people will open it up,” Melli said.

While buzz surrounds Corzine’s phone efforts, Christie’s staff members are pinning election success on the Web site www.itsmynj.com, a sounding board for New Jersey voters. The Web site allows voters the chance to upload comments and videos about their hopes for the state.

“The Web site gives people the chance to speak directly to the campaign, and it allows a range of voices to be heard,” Comella said.

How about the other voice in this campaign, the quiet voice, the voice that just wants to talk about issues?

* * *

Chris Daggett wanted people to laugh.

He wanted people to know what he stands for, let people know who he is.

“I felt strongly that this campaign shouldn’t be about negative ads, and screaming at each other about driving records and private loans,” Daggett, the independent candidate for governor, said.

So he released his escalator ad, expressing his belief that Corzine and Christie have focused too heavily on each other’s faults – and not enough about fixing New Jersey.

“For a campaign with limited resources at the moment, the ad has had a pretty big impact,” Daggett said.

Daggett doesn’t have the staff or deep pockets of his challengers, so the internet is the perfect resource for him – a chance to reach a broad slice of people without breaking the bank.

Daggett thinks this multimedia-driven election cycle is a follow-up to Barack Obama’s online voting presence a year ago. And that Obama carried forward the initiatives of 2004 Democratic presidential candidate Howard Dean’s internet grassroots efforts.

And four years from now, someone may be talking about Facebook and YouTube and Twitter in a past tense – and how some not-yet-imagined Internet concept is changing New Jersey’s 2013 gubernatorial race.

Facebook? YouTube? Twitter? That is so 2009.